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2021.10.25 11:34 Responsible-Sense847 Squid game soldier manipulation in Photoshop
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2021.10.25 11:34 nj2007ah Alle adden
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2021.10.25 11:34 MaksouR Little Hope, Me, glass, 2021
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2021.10.25 11:34 Bigziggs718 First Trunk and Treat success.
2021.10.25 11:34 SlycnVly Anything specifically going on in this strip of yard?
Hi - Renovated, but not the true hardcore way (no RoundUp for Lawns3, Sunjoe process), but hand scraped quite a bit of garbage.
This yard is so much better than it was before, but there is this streak right down the middle, shown in the pic. I will get a soil test, but is the way this particular weed go ing right down the middle signal some deficiency in particular? Thanks.
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2021.10.25 11:34 Emulion SHIB Falls 20% After Elon Musk Reveals He Doesn’t Own Any
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2021.10.25 11:34 SambaLando First show of the new tour
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2021.10.25 11:34 Dannig178 Chrissy Teigen
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2021.10.25 11:34 Andrewpurdy212 Dm me offers for vardy
2021.10.25 11:34 Physical-Building-19 More than one way to free a bed
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2021.10.25 11:34 scorhiphop Training Like Muhammad Ali For A Day!
2021.10.25 11:34 Dukethumper Serotonin, a brand new 13+ sfw community server that will be extremely voice and text active! Also has 18+ verified NSFW channels.
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2021.10.25 11:34 DragonVN270 Quick drawing of Salrahn
2021.10.25 11:34 NickHerag Parchment Paper PDF?
Recently, I've been wanting to create handouts for my online players that appear to be yellowed and weathered parchment paper. I was wondering if anyone knew of an online resource to make this?
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2021.10.25 11:34 TheBlazeBot WATCH: Afghan girl's POWERFUL message to US troops brings Glenn Beck to tears
2021.10.25 11:34 Sparklypotato321 Did Christine really post a photo of herself in a dress that could easily be a wedding dress on her costars wedding day?! And she wonders why she wasn’t invited and the girls distance themselves….
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2021.10.25 11:34 lemonvolcano Bridge game odds: alternative attempt
u/aaronhe07 created a fascinating post on the odds of each player surviving the bridge game. As I commented on that post, when I tried to take those results and use them for studying the odds of different total numbers of players surviving (to find the expected number of survivors), I hit a contradiction: when totalling the odds of no survivors, plus the odds of 1 survivor, plus the odds of 2, and so on, up to the odds of all 16 players surviving, I reached a total greater than 1 (100%). I had the same issue with my own calculations (which produced different results from OP for the odds of each player surviving).
However, when I changed to logic for calculating the survivor count probabilities, running against my own player data, I suddenly got exactly 1.0 total (100%). I'll be honest, I don't fully understand why the tweak in my survivor count method is correct, but it seems too a big coincidence for it to be a mistake that cancels out other mistakes in my first set of data to come to exactly the correct result.
Here are my odds for each player reaching the end:
01: 0.00038% 02: 0.01% 03: 0.19% 04: 1.60% 05: 8.52% 06: 27.45% 07: 55.14% 08: 78.04% 09: 90.73% 10: 96.38% 11: 98.64% 12: 99.50% 13: 99.82% 14: 99.94% 15: 99.98% 16: 99.99%
And here are my odds for having N survivors at the end of the game:
16: 0.00038% 15: 0.01% 14: 0.19% 13: 1.60% 12: 8.36% 11: 24.66% 10: 35.94% * 09: 22.82% 08: 5.82% 07: 0.57% 06: 0.02% 05: 0.0003% 04: 0.000001% 03: 0.000000003% ** 02: 0.000000000002% 01: 0.0000000000000003% 00: 0.00000000000000000002%
Total of survivor odds: 100.00%
I made the same assumptions as OP: everyone plays perfectly, no-one can tell a difference in the glass, everyone completes within the time limit, nobody kills anybody else.
If I'm correct (and I think we could really do with a proper statistician to look at this question), the most likely outcome* at 35.94% is that 10 players would survive. The odds of only 3 players making it** comes out as 0.000000003%. (I'm fascinated by the way these probabilities dwindle towards the end. Is it suspicious? Have I done something wrong?)
Expression for the odds of player P surviving step S (using a recursive strategy as suggested by OP):
(odds that player P-1 survived step S-1) + ((odds that player P-1 did NOT make it to step S-1) x (odds player P survived step S-1) x 0.5)
(If P=1, P-1 odds are always zero. Is S=1, odds of 'surviving' step zero are 1. All probabilities in range 0 to 1. I've multiplied the results by 100 above to give percentages to match the format of the original post).
The rationale here is that if the previous player survived the previous step, they will have attempted the current step, so we will know the right answer (regardless of whether they succeeded or failed). If on the other hand the previous player didn't make it to the previous step, all we have to go on is the odds we survived the previous step AND we guess right this time.
Now, my expression for deciding the odds of there being N survivors, which is equivalent to there being D=16-N deaths:
(odds that player 1 died) x (odds that player 2 died) x ... x (odds that player D died) x (odds that player D+1 survived)
I'll be honest, I originally thought this should just be (odds that player D died) x (odds that player D+1 survived), because the failure of player D implies the failure of all previous players. But, insisting on their deaths being represented here gives the right answer when you total all the survivor count outcomes, so I'll take it, for now!
I could try to post the grid of probabilities I get for each player surviving each step, but as an 18x16 grid it might be more than my reddit formatting skills can handle.
Props to OP for kicking this off and stopping me from getting any work done today. Part of me hopes we're both wrong and you have stumbled upon a new Monty Hall problem. Somebody qualified please help.
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2021.10.25 11:34 FIexOffender Top Releases of October - Week 4
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2021.10.25 11:34 AnisaCoggin 🤖 They Are Coming💎 | The Shiborg Army Unicrypt Pre-sale October 29 ✅Fully passed Audit 🤖 BSC | Auto-Stake | NFTs | Huge Dextools Ad Campaign Post-Launch 🔥 Last project hit 100x
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2021.10.25 11:34 TarryCurry New to 3d printing, Filament recommendations ?
Got myself an easythread X1. Have been told this performs better with high quality filaments but do not know what this constitutes. Any recommendations ? I think I may also have an issue with my nozzle as when it extrudes the filament curls up on itself after not to long and birds nests next to the nozzle. I have tried poking around up there with a thin needle but this has not sorted this issue for me. Does anyone have any ideas?
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2021.10.25 11:34 theKickAHobo What do people think if these shirt ideas?
2021.10.25 11:34 Anonesq31 4thQ NJ Solo Update
So I just wanted to update everyone on my progress as we are nearing the end of the year. I posted a link (above) for my prior update. To reiterate, my income for my first full year of solo practice was $125k. Something that I did not include in my prior update is that I was lucky enough to land a decent contingency case that settled rather quickly. So in one month I believe I made around $40k+.
Now for my second full year I have now made around $140k so far. I am finding my practice area (real estate transactional) is extremely busy right now. I am very busy with flat fee and hourly work. I am continuously increasing my fees. My hope is by the end of the year I will gross at least around $160k. My expenses have been around the same.
Most of my work has come from google ads and some referrals. Recently I have landed some great hourly matters (larger commercial deals) through my advertising efforts. I have actually pulled back a little on my advertising because I am so busy right now.
I am giving some thought to hiring a paralegal. I am operating completely virtual so not really sure yet how that would work. This is something I may consider more seriously next year as I continue to grow my firm. Otherwise my costs have really been the same. I have clio, quickbooks, an accountant and I spend around $2k+ per month on google ads. So all in all I would say I spend around $3k-$3,500.00 on overhead each month. Feel free to ask any questions.
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2021.10.25 11:34 90sRnBMakesMeHappy Got triggered by them not wanting to talk on phone
We had a misunderstanding last week, and the person I'm seeing said we should talk. So I asked 3 times when that was possible to schedule, also called them 4 times. I feel so stupid and hurt. They acted like they wanted to talk out the issue. But now I feel they didn't make time, and that means they aren't interested. The guy that ghosted me previously refused to talk, so my trigger is so on right.
I guess I feel it's over now. I made time, and I guess I hate texting so much. I hate that we could of talked this out. I hate I wasn't given the chance, again. We could of got past this. 😢
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2021.10.25 11:34 eddiecurry Could anything be worse than this?
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2021.10.25 11:34 pepsiAtlas where the hell does the entirety of the hive have to be other than right here, right now?
the hive have billions of ships right? they're unfathomably big in scale. what else do they have to be doing right now other than being here destroying the traveller?
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